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Thursday, February 12, 2015

Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election: Contingency Planning Memorandum Update


Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election
Contingency Planning Memorandum Update
Author: John Campbell, Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa 


 The success or failure of democracy, rule of law, and ethnic and religious reconciliation in Nigeria is a bellwether for the entire continent. With a population of more than 177 million evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and most populous country. A 2010 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Electoral Violence in Nigeria," considered the potential for widespread violence associated with Nigeria's 2011 elections and the limited policy options available to the United States to forestall it. This assessment remains relevant today.

 The 2015 elections again may precipitate violence that could destabilize Nigeria, and Washington has even less leverage in Abuja than it did in 2011. The upcoming elections are a rematch of the 2011 elections between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (a southern Christian) and Muhammadu Buhari (a northern Muslim and a former military chief). Tension between Washington and Abuja is higher than in 2011, largely over how to respond to the radical Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, which is steadily gaining strength in northeast Nigeria. According to CFR's Nigeria Security Tracker, Boko Haram has been responsible for nearly eleven thousand deaths since May 2011. Nigerian domestic instability has also increased as a result of the recent global collapse of oil prices, which are hitting the government and political classes hard. Oil constitutes more than 70 percent of Nigeria's revenue and provides more than 90 percent of its foreign exchange. Since October 2014, the national currency, the naira, has depreciated from 155 to the U.S. dollar to 191.

Policy Studies http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigerias-2015-presidential-election/p36087


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