Nigeria will be fourth most populous country in the world by 2050

Nigeria is currently the most populous country in Africa and seventh most populous in the world with 154,728,890 people as at 2009. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Nigeria will become the fourth most populous country in the world by 2050 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

See the detailed report in the following news release.

27 Jun 2011 15:10 Africa/Lagos

U.S. Projected to Remain World's Third Most Populous Country Through 2050, Census Bureau Reports

PR Newswire

WASHINGTON, June 27, 2011

WASHINGTON, June 27, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Through 2050, the United States is projected to remain in third place behind India and China among the world's most populous countries, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. These findings are derived from the population estimates and projections for 228 countries and areas released today through the Census Bureau's International Data Base. This release includes revisions for 19 countries and provides information on population size and growth, mortality, fertility and net migration.

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"The Census Bureau has been preparing individual country population estimates and projections for more than 50 years," said Loraine West, a demographer in the Census Bureau's Population Division. "Current estimates and projections are provided through 2050 and are routinely updated as new data become available."

Although the United States will maintain its third place position, the ranking of the countries with the 10 largest populations in the world (see table) is expected to change over the next few decades.

The top 10 countries each currently have at least 125 million inhabitants. Russia and Japan are projected to soon fall out of this group because of persistent low fertility rates, which have already caused their populations to decline. Russia's decline is also due in part to relatively high mortality.

The countries expected to advance in the rankings are those with high fertility. Ethiopia, in particular, with an estimated fertility rate of 6.0 children per woman in 2011, is projected to vault from 13th to seventh on the list of most populous countries by 2050, tripling in total population from 91 million to 278 million. Nigeria also has a relatively high estimated fertility rate of 5.7 and is projected to more than double its population by 2050 from 166 million to 402 million.

Currently seventh on the list of most populous countries, by 2050, Nigeria is projected to climb to fourth.

Other developing countries, such as Bangladesh, Brazil and Indonesia, while continuing to grow, will drop slightly in the rankings given that their fertility already is lower than Ethiopia and Nigeria.

China and India, the only countries with more than a billion people, are expected to continue to occupy the top two positions, although their order is projected to switch by 2025 when India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country.

By 2050, the Philippines will round out the world's most populous countries, reaching 10th on the list with a projected population of 172 million.

The 19 countries included in this update are Afghanistan, Angola, Azerbaijan, Comoros, Curacao, French Polynesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Netherlands, Nigeria, Qatar, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Suriname, United States and the British Virgin Islands.

The Census Bureau's International Data Base includes projections by sex and age for countries and other areas with populations of 5,000 or more. Population projections incorporate assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. In general, fertility and mortality are projected based on recent trends and migration for each country typically reflects recent trends but also considers longer-term levels of migration. The level of uncertainty is greater for projections further in the future.

Detailed tables

Editor's note: The data can be accessed at http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/ .

Follow @uscensusbureau on Twitter, Facebook, Flickr, YouTube and Ustream.

Tom Edwards
Public Information Office
301-763-3030/763-3762 (fax)
e-mail: pio@census.gov

SOURCE U.S. Census Bureau

Web Site: http://www.census.gov

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27 Jun 2011


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Nigeria Draws Regional Migrants but Loses High Skilled Labour, Migration Profile Finds

20 Jul 2010 14:39 Africa/Lagos

Country Draws Regional Migrants but Loses High Skilled Labour, Migration Profile Finds


ABUJA, July 20, 2010/African Press Organization (APO)/ -- A migration profile of Nigeria released today by IOM finds that the country remains attractive to migrants from the sub-region although increasing numbers of skilled Nigerians emigrate in search of employment abroad.

According to the National Population Commission, the number of immigrants residing in Nigeria has more than doubled in recent decades - from 477,135 in 1991 to 971,450 in 2005. The Profile shows that the majority of immigrants in Nigeria (74%) are from neighbouring Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and that this number has increased considerably over the last decade, from 63 per cent in 2001 to 97 per cent in 2005.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, the Nigerian economy grew between 5.5 and 6.4 per cent each year from 2004 to 2007, with the oil sector the primary engine of growth and a magnet for high-skilled migrant workers. However, recent economic growth has also been linked to the informal labour sector, which traditionally attracts low-skilled national as well as international migrant labour.

Although the overall situation in Nigeria has somewhat improved in recent years, the country still has some way to go towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The country has the world's third highest number of people infected by HIV/Aids, after India and South Africa and scores low in the United Nations Development Programme's human development index ranking (125 out of 151).

In spite of Nigeria's importance as a destination for migrants in the region, the report however shows that more people are emigrating from, than immigrating to, Nigeria with the negative net migration rate (per 1,000 people) steadily increasing in recent years, from -0.2 in 2000 to -0.3 in 2005, and this trend is expected to continue. According to recent estimates, the net migration rate could reach -0.4 in 2010.

Estimates made by the Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty (DRC), based on the 2000 Census Round, indicate that 1,041,284 Nigerian nationals live abroad, mostly in Sudan (24%), followed by the United States (14%) and the United Kingdom (9%). Many Nigerian emigrants also settle in neighbouring Cameroon (8%) and in Ghana (5%).


Although it is difficult to obtain empirical data on migrant skills, there appears to be a strong link between high skill level and migration. According to the latest estimates in 2000, 10.7 per cent of the highly skilled population who were trained in Nigeria worked abroad, mostly in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

According to the report, an average of 64 per cent of the Nigerian emigrant population have tertiary education; 14 per cent of all physicians trained in Nigeria work abroad, with 90 per cent of these working in the United States and the United Kingdom.

Regarding the flow of remittances to Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) notes a dramatic increase from USD 2.3 billion in 2004 to 17.9 billion in 2007, representing 6.7 per cent of GDP.

The United States accounts for the largest portion of official remittances, followed by the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain and France. On the African continent, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and South Africa are important source countries of remittance flows to Nigeria, while China is the biggest remittance-sending country in Asia.

The report also notes a marked increase in the number of Nigerians emigrating for educational purposes. From 2000 to 2006, the number of Nigerian students abroad more than doubled from 10,000 to 22,000, the majority of these (some 6,000) studying at universities in the United States.

Consequently, the overall number of tertiary educated persons has been declining, from 90,579 in 2002/2003 to 39,509 in 2005/2006.

One result of this is the lack of human capital to meet the demand for highly skilled workers in the labour market. The Ministry of Health reported that nearly 8 per cent of its 39,210 doctors and 2,773 dentists are foreign nationals.

Despite declining official unemployment rates (from 12% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2008), the overall labour supply continues to outstrip demand and this is likely to continue in the near future as Nigeria is one of the ten most populous countries in the world and has one of the fastest population growth rates (2.38% in 2008).

Based on this growth rate, the Nigerian population will double its currently estimated size of 146 million people, and unless the market is able to absorb the resulting surplus labour, unemployment is likely to increase and lead to still greater emigration.

A review of the data available for the Migration Profile of Nigeria reveals several challenges including: the need for a national migration data management strategy tracking both internal and external migration; inadequate funding for training and staffing of personnel to record and monitor migration trends and provide migration controls at exit and entry points; the absence of a centralized system and official body mandated to coordinate migration issues amongst government ministries.

Having said this, Nigeria is one of the few countries in West Africa to have developed a draft national policy on migration which is pending ratification by the National Assembly. The draft migration policy, amongst other objectives, seeks to establish a central migration authority within the government, and addresses the absence of Migration as a theme in Nigeria's main development plans, such as the National Economic Employment Development Strategy (NEEDS) and the state and local government counterparts (SEEDS and LEEDS).

In addition to supporting full implementation of the pending legislation, the report recommends: clearly establishing the role of the National Commission for Refugees, which will be responsible for coordinating migration management activities; focussing on internal as well as external migration issues given that this is a precursor for international migration, occurs on a relatively greater scale and is vital for understanding the level of development of the country; and government emphasis on the strategic importance of migration in development by giving its full support to formalizing and implementing the national policy on migration.


Source: International Office of Migration (IOM)



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Mali Remains a Country of Emigration and Transit, IOM Migration Profile Confirms

13 Apr 2010 19:02 Africa/Lagos

Mali Remains a Country of Emigration and Transit, IOM Migration Profile Confirms

BAMAKO, April 13, 2010/African Press Organization (APO)/ -- IOM Press Briefing Notes
A migration profile of Mali released today finds that this landlocked West African country remains essentially a country of emigration, although increasing numbers of irregular migrants appear to transit through Mali on their way to Europe via the Maghreb countries.

According to the report, demographic growth, poverty, increased unemployment and difficult climatic conditions continue to push many Malians to migrate internally from rural to urban areas, within the West African region and beyond.

Based on the 2000 Census Round Data, the report estimates the number of Malian abroad to be in excess of 1,5 million, with a 32 per cent living and working in Côte d'Ivoire, 28 per cent in Burkina Faso, 10 per cent in Guinea, 6 per cent in Nigeria and 5 per cent in Ghana.

The remainder are thought to be employed in OECD countries, primarily in industry, construction; agriculture and fishing. Most of them have a low level of education.

However, the report notes that Mali is confronted with a certain brain drain, since 15 per cent of Malian university graduates emigrated during the 1995-2005 period. In the health sector, 23 per cent of Malian doctors and 15 per cent of nurses found employment in 9 developed countries, with France remaining the favoured destination.

Despite the country's political commitment in favour of regional integration, the report notes that immigration to Mali remains very limited with an estimated 164,000 migrants representing just 1,4 per cent of the total population in 2005. Immigration to Mali is mostly regional, with migrants coming from Burkina Faso (23 %), Ghana (13 %), Guinea (10 %), Benin (9 %) and Niger (8 %).


Although data on transit migration remains scarce, the report states that Mali seems to have become an important point of passage, with routes linking countries in Central and West Africa to the Maghreb and Libya.


As for remittances, they reached 212 million USD in 2007, representing 3, 3 per cent of the country's GDP. Although remittances are mostly used to improve the living conditions of families left behind, the emergence of structured migrants' associations has increased the share of funds used for social and productive investments.

In the Western region of Kayes, the report notes that migrants' associations in France have funded over the past decade more than 220 community projects in dozens of villages.

The IOM profile, which is funded by the European Union, the Belgian Development Cooperation and the Swiss Federal Office for Migration, says that the Government of Mali has achieved some success in drawing on the expertise of its diaspora by encouraging the return of qualified migrants through programmes such as the UNDP implemented Transfer of Knowledge through Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN) programme.


It notes efforts deployed to incorporate migration into the National Strategic Framework on Development such as the priority solidarity fund for co-development programme established with France to support the activities of associations, facilitate the mobilization of remittances and strengthen ties between emigrant youths and their country of origin.


The report underlines the scarcity of reliable data on migration as the last general population census in Mali and the only specialized survey on migration were undertaken more than ten years ago, and cannot therefore reflect the current trends.


Furthermore, national structures dealing with migration do not have the capacity to properly manage and analyse data. To improve data on migration, there is a need to develop and establish a coherent data management system, involving all relevant partners and in keeping with the guiding principles of the country's national plan for statistics.


Source: International Office of Migration (IOM)