Showing posts with label International Crisis Group. Show all posts
Showing posts with label International Crisis Group. Show all posts

Thursday, September 15, 2011

International Crisis Group / Lessons from Nigeria's 2011 Elections



15 Sep 2011 09:11 Africa/Lagos

International Crisis Group / Lessons from Nigeria's 2011 Elections

BRUSSELS, September 15, 2011/African Press Organization (APO)/ -- Nigeria's April elections may have broken somewhat its cycle of deeply flawed polls, but the country still must meet many and daunting challenges to ensure a stable and democratic future.

Lessons from Nigeria's 2011 Elections, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the vote that returned President Goodluck Jonathan to office and left the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) weakened but still in control of the national legislature and nearly two thirds of the 36 states. It highlights the steps that are needed to prepare for the next major elections cycle, in 2015, including extensive technical and administrative reforms of and by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), in parallel with broad political and economic measures to make the state more relevant to citizens and address the root causes of deadly violence in society.

“Between now and the next general polls in 2015, far-reaching electoral, political and economic reforms are needed to help consolidate the modest gains made in 2011 and launch the country on the path of permanent and sustainable electoral change”, says Kunle Amuwo, Crisis Group's Senior Nigeria Analyst.



After three bad elections – 1999, that heralded the Fourth Republic, 2003 and 2007, the last being marked by widespread electoral malpractice and a staggering scale of falsified results – the 2011 exercise was critical for Nigeria's fledgling democracy and overall political health. There were grounds for pessimism: the upsurge of violence in several states, encouraged by politicians and their supporters who feared defeat; an ambiguous and confusing legal framework for the elections; and a flawed voter registration exercise, with poorly functioning biometric scans, that resulted in an inflated voters' roll.

What resulted was an improvement over past elections, especially the 2007 debacle, but still serious problems, including highly questionable majorities reported for the incumbent president in certain areas, and extensive violence, producing more than 1,000 deaths, mainly in the troubled North, after the presidential results were announced.

The new government should prioritise releasing funds to INEC so it can begin early preparations for 2015. INEC should compile, maintain and update the National Register of Voters on a continual basis, in accordance with the 2010 Nigerian Electoral Act. But major electoral, constitutional and economic initiatives are also needed to make the 2015 polls truly free and fair and to ensure they are not tainted by blood. The proposals in the 2009 Uwais Electoral Reform Committee report should be widely published, and efforts enhanced to make the system more inclusive; there is urgent need to reduce poverty and create jobs for restive young school-leavers and graduates. Constitutional amendment should be done with a more holistic, less piecemeal, approach, with full involvement of the Nigerian people, who have long been demanding it.

“Nigeria has the resources and the capacity to entrench a culture of credible elections, with all that would mean for sustainable democracy”, says Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group's West Africa Project Director. “Otherwise, flawed elections will continue to threaten its fragile democracy and reduce its diplomatic weight on the continental and global scene”.


Source: International Crisis Group

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Thursday, March 3, 2011

Côte d'Ivoire / Is War the Only Option?

3 Mar 2011 18:37 Africa/Lagos


Côte d'Ivoire / Is War the Only Option?

DAKAR, March 3, 2011/African Press Organization (APO)/ -- Côte d'Ivoire is on the verge of a new civil war. This tragedy can only be avoided if Africans and the wider international community stand firm behind the democratically elected president, Alassane Ouattara, and he launches an initiative for reconciliation and a transitional government of national unity.

Côte d'Ivoire: Is War the Only Option?, the latest International Crisis Group report, examines the escalation of political violence and armed confrontations since Laurent Gbagbo refused to accept defeat in the November presidential election and has sought to retain office by manipulating institutions and violence. The report says war is imminent, with Gbagbo's army and militias already beginning to clash with the former insurgent Forces Nouvelles in Abidjan and the west of the country, close to the border with Liberia.

The requirements to avoid a disastrous new conflict include Gbagbo stepping down; Ouattara offering to negotiate, with civil society help, an agreement for unity, national reconciliation and an interim transitional government with him at its head (but without the irreconcilable former president); the UN peace-keeping mission standing firm to carry out its civilian protection mandate; and the international community unequivocally supporting any decisions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), including deployment of a military mission.

“The Gbagbo regime is a serious threat to peace, security and stability in the whole West African region”, says Rinaldo Depagne, Crisis Group's West Africa Senior Analyst. “Any proposal to end the crisis that endorses or extends the Gbagbo presidency would only prolong the chaos and increase the risks”.

The election was part of a peace process that began after the September 2002 rebellion and was endorsed by several accords, the latest the 2007 Ouagadougou Political Agreement that all candidates, including Gbagbo, accepted and that set out compromises on organisation and security for the balloting. Ouattara won the run-off with a margin of more than 350,000 votes over Gbagbo.

The UN certified that result, but Gbagbo used the country's highest court to throw out votes arbitrarily so he could stage a constitutional coup. Since then, he has relied on violence and ultra-nationalist rhetoric to cling to power. Over 300 people have been killed, dozens raped and many more abducted and disappeared by security forces. ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) have recognised Ouattara as president-elect and asked Gbagbo to step down, but he is apparently prepared to resist to the end, even if it means throwing Côte d'Ivoire into anarchy, war and economic disaster with terrible consequences for the entire region.

The international community has an important role to play in assuring a peaceful outcome. The UN Security Counsel must support the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) and encourage it to use all necessary means to accomplish its mandate. A new list of Ivorians subject to targeted sanctions should be developed, and the illegitimate Gbagbo regime's sources of finance should be examined. African states in particular need to show unity, and in particular South Africa should support ECOWAS efforts to remove Gbagbo and install Ouattara rather than pursue dangerously mistaken power sharing notions.

“The most likely scenario is an armed conflict involving massive violence against civilians that could provoke unilateral military intervention by neighbours”, says Crisis Group West Africa Project Director Gilles Yabi. “To prevent this, ECOWAS must reclaim responsibility for political and military management of the crisis, with the unequivocal support of the AU and the UN”.



Source: International Crisis Group