Political Realities of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Political Realities of the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

 Believe it or not, majority of the crowds at the presidential campaign rallies of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, GCON; in the north are going to vote for President Muhammadu Buhari, GCFR; in the presidential election, because of the political power bloc of his grassroots movement since when he was a former military Head of State of Nigeria from December 31, 1983 to August 27, 1985 and increased over the years during his previous campaigns for presidential elections in 2003, 2007, and 2011.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), majority of the over 84 million registered voters are youths between the ages 18 and 35. But the problem with majority of Nigerian youths in the south is they have a different political education and religious orientation from the youths in the north. Majority of the youths supporting President Buhari in the north have their PVCs. But majority of the youths supporting Alhaji Atiku in the south don't have PVCs. Majority of the Igbo youths  are followers and supporters of their new secessionist leader, Nnamdi Kanu of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) who will not participate in the presidential election as ordered by their leader on Radio #Biafra.

 Alhaji Atiku and the main opposition party, People's Democratic Party (PDP) are banking on political bribery of Igbo youths and youths of other tribes to win the presidential election scheduled for Saturday, February 16, next week.  But majority of the youths in northern Nigeria have already made up their minds to vote for the incumbent President Buhari and the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC).

The youths in the south and the youths in the north cannot have a consensus on a presidential candidate, because they are intellectually and politically disconnected due to their different political and religious differences. The predominantly Muslim youths of northern Nigeria are more conscious and informed on the politics of religion than the predominantly Christian youths of southern Nigeria. And majority of the southern youths are not as politically united as the northern youths. Yoruba youths don't agree with Igbo youths and Igbo youths don't agree with Yoruba youths.

The sociopolitical consequences of the internecine civil war of 1967-1970 between the rebel Republic of Biafra of the Igbos and the rest of the Federal Republic of Nigeria have caused ingrained doubts, fears and rivalries among the ethnic groups of the different tribes.  They are polarised political rivals from the street to the internet. Majority of Yoruba youths are supporters of President Buhari and the APC. Majority of the south-south youths who supported and voted for the PDP in the presidential elections of 2011 and 2015 did so in order to elect former President Goodluck Jonathan who is from their region. They are now politically polarised;
divided between the APC and PDP since the two presidential candidates are both northern political leaders of the same Islamic religion. But the overwhelming popularity of Senator Godswill Obot Akpabio, CON; former Governor of Akwa Ibom State (from May 29, 2007 to May 29, 2015) who defected from the PDP to APC in 2018 will most likely swing the popular vote in favour of President Buhari.

If the presidential election will be free and fair without political sabotage, political bribery and rigging, President Buhari should defeat Alhaji Atiku without dispute.

~ By Ekenyerengozi Michael Chima, prize winning Nigerian writer and author of "In the House of Dogs", "The Prophet Lied", " Diary of the Memory Keeper", "Scarlet Tears of London" and other books.
https://www.amazon.com/author/ekenyerengozimichaelchima.