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Thursday, March 28, 2013

57% of Nigerians Buy Petrol Above the Official N97 Per Litre



PRESS RELEASE

57% of NIGERIANS BUY PETROL ABOVE THE OFFICIAL N97 PER LITRE

Abuja, Nigeria. March 28, 2013
This week’s Poll results' release by NOI Polls is based on a 12 month project (start date: January 2013) on Petrol Pump Price Monitoring. Results would be released every quarter to show a three-month average on the pump price of petrol as bought by consumers across the country. Next release date would be June 2013. This poll is conducted via telephone interviews across the 36 states including the FCT with a total of 1,512 phone owning Nigerians aged 18 and above that use the product.

The removal of fuel subsidy in January 2011 sparked protests across the country on the impact of this removal on household spending (please visit our website to read about results of this impact), although the removal of the fuel subsidies is in line with the Federal Government’s transformation agenda aimed at improving transparency, efficiency and accountability in the petroleum sector thereby curbing corruption, attempts to further remove subsidies has generated opposition from consumers due to presumptions that any price increase will further raise inflation and reduce economic welfare. However the question still remains on whether the product is being sold at the official price as stated by the government at N97 per litre or marketers are selling above the price. In view of this, NOI Polls conducted these monthly snap polls to help gauge the price distortions if any on petrol products that occur along axial lines and to track the average price paid for petrol each month. Results presented here are from snap polls conducted in the first quarter of 2013 (January, February and March). We hope that these results would bring about a discourse round the price parity, fuel subsidy and the need for transparency in the downstream sector.

Topline results:
Three key findings from the three month average show that 57% of Nigerians have bought Petrol above the official price of N97 within a range of N100 –N130 per litre. This disparity is particularly seen in cities outside Lagos and Abuja. 70% of the South East Consumers buy their product from Independents; lastly 54% of Nigerians have attributed the huge disparity in the price to non-monitoring of the filling stations by the government.

The NOI Polls survey asked people a collection of 10 specific questions monthly over the three month period; we have reported four of these questions here. To get full results please email editor@noi-polls.com.The first question sought to establish where respondents buy petrol. Respondents were asked: Where do you mainly buy petrol from? Nationwide results indicate that the majority (61%) mainly buy petrol from major marketer filling stations followed by 34% who buy from independent marketer stations. Only 5% mainly purchase their petrol from petrol hawkers.

An analysis of results across geo-political zones highlights some interesting differences. The majority (70%) of respondents in the South East mainly buy their petrol from independents; this could be representative of the fact that there could be a greater number of independents within the South East. Also, the North East has the greatest proportion (11%) of respondents that mainly buy from petrol hawkers.



Over the first quarter of 2013, respondents were asked the following question each month: How much do you normally buy petrol? Nationwide results show that over the 3 months, an average of 57% of respondents bought at more than N97 per litre while 43% of respondents bought at the official price of N97 per litre.



Further analysis along months show that, the proportion of respondents that buy at the official price of N97 per litre has increased steadily over the months from 31% (January) to 46% (February) and 51% (March). This can be attributed to easing of the intense fuel scarcity experienced in most parts of the country towards the end of 2012 and early in 2013. However the overall average of 43% still shows a huge disparity in prices across regions. Please click here to see Monthly purchases across geo-political regions.

Subsequently, each month respondents were asked the following question: What do you normally use petrol for? A nationwide average indicate that the majority (34%) of Nigerians mainly use the product for their generators, 29% use the product for their cars while 24% use the product for both their cars and generators. A trend analysis (Jan: 25%, Feb: 37%, Mar: 39%) shows a rise in the use of petrol for generators in February and March indicating a higher use of alternate power supply in this period. Other uses of petrol include for machinery, tricycles etc.



Respondents were also asked: What do you think is responsible for the difference in the pump price of petrol across filling stations? The vast majority (54%) said the differences occur because the government is not monitoring filling stations. This is followed by 22% who think it is because the cost of importing petrol is not the same for all marketers and 16% who think the filling stations are exploiting the public by hoarding fuel.



In conclusion, the quarterly results from the three month average show that 57% of Nigerians have bought Petrol above the official price of N97 within a range of N100 –N130 per litre. This disparity is particularly seen in cities outside Lagos and Abuja. 70% of the South East Consumers buy their product from Independents not Major marketers; lastly 54% of Nigerians have attributed the huge disparity in the price to non-monitoring of the filling stations by the government.

Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted between January to March 2013. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. A total of 1,512 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise - within a range of plus or minus 5%. NOI Polls Limited is Nigeria’s leading opinion polling and research organisation, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com

Disclaimer
This press release has been produced by NOI Polls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the general public, we only request that NOI Polls be acknowledged as author whenever our poll results are used, cited or published.

NOI Polls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOI Polls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOI Polls’ current findings and/or thinking.


Press Contact:
The Editor
Email: editor@noi-polls.com







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