Mineta Transportation Institute Experts Analyze Terrorism Bombing of Nigerian Bus Terminal
Jenkins and Butterworth explain why public transport is a lucrative target
SAN JOSE, Calif.,
April 21, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- During the morning rush hour on
April 14,
a car bomb containing an estimated 500-800 pounds of explosives blew up
at the Nyanya District bus station on the outskirts of
Abuja, Nigeria.
Brian Michael Jenkins and
Bruce R. Butterworth,
terrorism experts from the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI),
explained its significance for the rest of the world and put the facts
into a larger perspective.
"The bomb obliterated four large buses filled with passengers and
many smaller buses," said Mr. Jenkins, director of MTI's National
Transportation Safety and Security Center and a terrorism expert. "The
latest casualty figures as of
April 15 put
the death toll at 75, with 141 wounded, but the number of fatalities is
expected to rise. That makes this the deadliest bomb attack on
Nigeria's capital and the first terrorist bombing in
Abuja since
December 2011, when a bomb was detonated at a Catholic church, killing 41 people."
In
August 2011, another vehicle-borne
improvised explosive device (VBIED) was detonated at the United Nations
headquarters in the city. That bomb left 23 dead.
Officials blame the Islamist group Boko Haram
Mr. Jenkins said that, although no group has yet claimed
responsibility for the latest attack, authorities blamed it on Boko
Haram, an Islamist group that seeks to establish an independent Muslim
state in the North of
Nigeria. The
official name of the group is the Congregation of the People of
Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad, but it is generally referred to as
Boko Haram, he said, which in the Hausa language translates roughly as
"Western Education Is a Sin." Boko Haram was founded in 2002 but began
its terrorist campaign in 2009.
The political upheavals across
North Africa, in particular,
Libya's
civil war, destabilized the entire region and exacerbated local
conflicts. Boko Haram escalated its campaign. More than 4,000 people
have been killed in the past four years. Including casualties from the
bus terminal bombing, more than 1,500 people have died in Boko Haram
attacks thus far in 2014.
Most of Boko Haram's attacks were directed against police stations,
but it has increasingly attacked civilian targets, including public
transportation, markets, and churches. The group opposes the education
of girls and has also carried out a number of deadly attacks on schools.
On the same day as the
Abuja bombing, Boko Haram kidnapped 129 students from a girl's school in
Nigeria.
This was a message to Nigeria and the world.
"The
Abuja bombing belies the
Nigerian government's claim that its recent military offensive succeeded
in confining Boko Haram to a remote area in northern
Nigeria,"
said Mr. Butterworth, a research associate and terrorism expert with
MTI. "That Boko Haram was still in town, able to carry out attacks in
the nation's capital, was no doubt the message the group wanted to
convey."
That reminder may also be aimed at a broader world audience as the
World Economic Forum prepares to hold an international summit in
Nigeria
in May, he said. Upcoming major international events prompt terrorist
attacks, as was seen in the Volgograd bombings just weeks before the
scheduled opening of the Sochi Olympics. (See MTI Perspective,
By the Numbers: Russia's Terrorists Increasingly Target Transportation .)
The attack ranks high for lethality
"Looking at all attacks on public surface transportation systems worldwide since 1970, the
Abuja bombing was the 12
th
most lethal attack," said Mr. Jenkins. "When comparing similar attack
methods, it was the ninth most lethal attack. This means looking only at
attacks by terrorists (putting aside deranged persons or ordinary
criminals) and considers only those attacks involving a single attack
method and not a combination of methods, such as a derailment followed
by an armed assault to finish off trapped passengers."
He noted that, in terms of attacks involving explosives, it was the
seventh most lethal bombing. Finally, looking at the attack in terms of
fatalities per explosive device used, it was the fifth most lethal.
Interestingly, one of the four most lethal attacks was a 1987 VBIED
bombing against at an open-air bus station in
Sri Lanka
that killed 105 people and injured 200. All figures come from MTI's
proprietary database of terrorist attacks against surface transportation
around the world.
Nigerian bus stations are common targets
Bus station attacks with high fatalities feature heavily in Boko
Haram's terrorist campaign. Three attacks on open-air bus stations
killed a total of 116 people, an average of 39 fatalities per attack.
MTI's database records 12 of those attacks in
Nigeria.
(The data does not count 34 attacks on pipelines, which usually but not
always cause no casualties.) All but one of these involved buses, bus
stations, or bus stops. These 11 attacks combined killed 146 and injured
215, an average of 13.3 fatalities and 19.5 injuries per attack.
Fatalities per attack are four times higher than the worldwide average
for bus targets, which is 3.2, and over five times higher than the
combined worldwide average for bus, train, road and passenger ferry
targets, which is 2.5.
Jihadist attacks are more lethal
Mr. Butterworth noted, "Jihadist groups continue to view public
surface transportation targets as lucrative ones offering terrorists the
high body counts they seek. Attacks by Islamist extremist groups
worldwide – including those not just following al Qaeda's jihadist
terminology, but also those dedicated to Salafi-Islamist goals – killed
an average of 8.6 people per attack, with the most lethal attacks –
excluding passenger ferries – directed against bus stations or bus
stops, with 8.8 fatalities per attack. Attacks on passenger buses come
close behind at 5.2 fatalities per attack. The three jihadist attacks
against bus stations in
Nigeria were far more lethal."
By contrast, attacks on surface transportation by non-jihadist groups, including nearly all of the attacks in
Israel against bus targets and the lethal campaign waged by the Tamil Tigers in
Sri Lanka,
achieved an average body count of only 2.2 fatalities per attack –
three fatalities per attack against buses and 1.9 fatalities per attack
against bus stations and stops.
"Overall, there appear to be more bus attacks worldwide recently,
with bus attacks becoming slightly more lethal," he said. "By contrast,
while passenger and commuter train attacks have also increased, their
lethality has decreased."
VBIEDs deliver high body counts
Looking at the most lethal combination of terrorist devices, targets
and delivery methods, open air bus stations featured in three of the 15
most lethal attacks, and VBIEDS were used in four of them. Of these,
three attacks were directed against bus stations and one attack against a
bus itself.
Looking at all attacks, not just those involving explosives, VBIEDS
are the seventh most frequently used terrorist weapon and the sixth
most
lethal attack method, killing an average of 7.8 people per attack.
Interestingly, whether VBIEDs were detonated remotely or by suicide
bombers only slightly changes their lethality, far less than suicide
delivery does for most IEDs.
Developing nations are hit hardest
"Citizens of western countries tend to think that all terrorism is aimed at them," said Mr. Jenkins. "The
Abuja
attack reminds us that the developing nations suffer far more from
terrorism than the developed nations. In terms of the number of attacks,
only four countries are developed nations from among the top 20 whose
public surface transportation systems are the most targeted by
terrorists. These developed nations are
Israel,
Russia,
Spain, and the
United Kingdom."
India and
Pakistan
are first and second in terms of the total number of attacks on surface
transportation systems, with 19 and 17 percent of the total,
respectively.
Nigeria is in 39
th place, although the number of attacks recently has increased.
Mr. Jenkins added, "When we look at where the most lethal attacks on
surface transportation take place, the contrast is also stark.
Considering the 16 countries with 40 or more attacks – which tends to
reduce situations where just a few large-scale attacks can significantly
increase the national lethality average –
all are developing countries except same four countries –
Israel,
Russia,
Spain and the UK. The worldwide average is 2.3 fatalities per attack."
The most lethal attacks on average occurred in
Sri Lanka (8.4 fatalities per attack) and
Algeria (4.6 fatalities per attack).
India's lethality rate is 2.7, only slightly less than
Israel's 2.8, and
Pakistan's was 2.4. By contrast,
Russia's fatality rate was 2.1,
Spain's 1.6, and the UK's 0.9. Developing countries clearly suffer greatly, said Mr. Jenkins.
The more people rely on buses, the more they are targeted
Terrorist bus attacks can also occur in the developed countries as
well. In fact, buses are attacked more than any other set of public
surface transport targets in both developing and developed countries.
However, the lethality of bus attacks in the developing countries is
greater.
Mr. Butterworth said that, excluding
Israel
from the set of developed countries (because it is probably unique in
its reliance on a public bus system instead of passenger, commuter, and
subway rail), developed country attacks on buses generated a body count
of 1.5 and a rate of 0.8 on bus stations and stops. By comparison,
similar attacks in the developing world generated fatality rates of 3.2
for buses and 2.9 for bus stations and stops.
"The more people rely upon bus transportation, the more it becomes a
lucrative terrorist target," he said. "Still, we have to remember that
attacks against bus targets in the developed countries do happen, and
they can be lethal, as indicated by the 2012 bus bombing in Burgas,
Bulgaria, which killed 6, as well as last December's attack against a bus trolley in Volgograd,
Russia, which killed 16."
Previous Transportation Security Perspectives include
By the Numbers: Russia's Terrorists Increasingly Target Transportation ;
Mineta Transportation Institute Says Subways Are Still in Terrorists' Sights; and
The Terrorist Attack in Kunming, China: Does It Indicate a Growing Threat Worldwide? All are available for free download and no registration.
ABOUT BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS
Brian Michael Jenkins is an
international authority on terrorism and sophisticated crime. He directs
the Mineta Transportation Institute's (MTI) National Transportation
Safety and Security Center, which focuses on research into protecting
surface transportation against terrorist attacks. He is also a senior
advisor to the president of RAND. From 1989-98, Mr. Jenkins was deputy
chairman of Kroll Associates, an international investigative and
consulting firm. Before that, he was chairman of RAND's Political
Science Department, where he also directed research on political
violence. He has authored several books, chapters, and articles on
counterterrorism, including
International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict and
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? Most recently, he published
When Armies Divide,
a discussion about nuclear arms in the hands of rebelling armies. He
also has been principal investigator for many peer-reviewed
security-focused research reports for MTI.
ABOUT BRUCE R. BUTTERWORTH
Mr. Butterworth has worked at congressional, senior policy, and
operational levels, including with the House Government Operations
Committee, Department of Transportation, and the Office of the
Secretary. He managed negotiations on air and maritime services in the
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) (now the World Trade
Organization), chaired U.S. delegations to United Nations committees,
and was part of the response to the bombing of Pan Am 103. He was an
executive in airline security, and he launched a successful program of
dangerous-goods regulation and cargo security after the 1995 ValuJet
crash. He worked closely with Congress and other federal-level agencies
and departments. Currently, he is a research associate at the Mineta
Transportation Institute. Mr. Butterworth received an MS degree from the
London School of Economics and a BA degree from the
University of the Pacific (magna cum laude). He was a California State Scholar and a Rotary Foundation Fellow.
ABOUT THE MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE (MTI):
MTI conducts research, education, and information transfer programs
focusing on surface transportation policy and management issues,
especially related to transit. MTI was established by Congress in 1991
as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act and won
national re-designation competitions in 2002, 2006 and 2011. The
Institute is funded by Congress through the US DOT Research and
Innovative Technology Administration, by the California Legislature
through Caltrans, and public and private grants. In 2006 the US
Department of Homeland Security selected MTI as a National
Transportation Security Center of Excellence. The internationally
respected members of the MTI Board of Trustees represent all major
surface transportation modes. MTI is the lead institute for the Mineta
National Transit Research Consortium, an affiliation of nine university
transportation research centers. MTI is affiliated with
San Jose (CA) State University's College of Business. Visit
transweb.sjsu.edu
Contact:
Donna Maurillo
MTI Communications Director
831-234-4009 (mobile)
donna.maurillo (at) sjsu.edu
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