Riskcheck: Regional Security Report On Nigeria
NORTH EAST
During the week under review, the Ground Forces (GF) of Operation LAFIYA DOLE reportedly had several successful confrontations with the BHT groups which led to the rescue of some kidnapped victims. These confrontations seem to have led to the minimal number of attacks on civilians recorded during this period.
It was also reported that the school pupils of Chibok community successfully participated in their first West African Examination Council (WAEC) examination since the kidnap of the Chibok girls in April 2014. The attacks on Dalori on the eastern part of Borno and Kareto on the northern part of Borno states demonstrates BHTs presence across the state and confirms their capability to undertake isolated attacks. There was also a reported raid on kidnapper/robbers hideout in Taraba State.
Borno State maintains a high-risk posture while neighboring Adamawa and Yobe States maintain medium-risk.
NORTH WEST
GF’s continued land and air assault against the ABGs of the NW reportedly led to the neutralization of members of the ABGs and the arrest of over 418 members, arrest of 315 illegal miners, rescue of many kidnap victims and the recovery of large cache of ammunitions across the NW. Notwithstanding the success of the GF’s in week 36 and week 37, there were still reported cases of community invasion and kidnap incidents in Zamfara and Katsina States.
There were also reported incidences of kidnap with active shooting along Kaduna – Abuja road that maintains a high-risk status. Southern Kaduna remains high risk with reported attacks that included the kidnap and subsequent murder of an NSCDC personnel amongst others. Kano city reportedly witnessed increased cult activities in the Sabo area occasioned by mugging, theft of phones mostly under the cover of darkness.
NW region remains high risk but for Kano, Sokoto and Kebbi States which maintain medium-risk status.
NORTH CENTRAL
The reported GF and vigilante onslaught on kidnappers along Abuja - Lokoja road continued in week 37. The onslaught is assumed to be the reason for absence of recorded incidents along the that axis of the route. Nonetheless, there was a recorded armed robbery incident on Saturday at Osara along the Lokoja – Okene axis recording causalities including two commuters and a policeman.
Herdsmen/farmers clash continued unabated in Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau States resulting into numerous murders and community invasion. The Amnesty Program by the Benue State government for repentant criminals and aggressors suffered a setback with the GF’s attack on a group of over 172 repentant criminals who had already surrendered to the government whilst on their way to Makurdi to meet with the State governor . The GF attack resulted in the death of a notorious criminal and the arrest of numerous members of his gang.
There was also a reported incident of community invasion and kidnap of 20 people in Tungan Maje community in Gwagwalada LGA in week 37, a situation which promptly the attention and reaction of GF. Though there was a reaction to the Tungan Maje incident, the previous reported incidents at the various suburbs of the FCT such as Abaji, Kuje, Bwari and Kwali did not enjoy such response. The suburbs of the FCT remain high risk particularly due to the ease of escape and the low probability of law enforcement response. There was a reported protest in Abuja during this period. Thekidnap of a doctor along Ilorin-Ogbomosho road close to Eyenkorin in Kwara state was also reported.
NC including Abuja remains high-risk with the risk domiciled in suburbs and on highways
SOUTH EAST
There have been consistent reported cases of cult activities in Abia and Enugu States. Though aggravated violence by cult groups are always directed at rival groups, there are numerous reported cases of mugging, phone thefts and numerous attacks on private citizens in Aba, with the high-risk area being the Over-Rail axis. There were reports of 3 fatal incidents of attack and weapons collection from policemen in the SE, the incidents took place in Owerri and Owerre Nkworji in the Nkwerre Local Government Area of Imo State, and in Okagwe Ohafia in Abia state. There were also a reported shooting and killing incident by NSCDC personnel in Umuokwo of Abia state, a situation which quickly degenerated into a protest by youths of Umuokpo community, Obingwa council area who took over Ikot Ekpene highway.
SE metropolis remain medium risk while the highways maintain a high-risk status.
SOUTH WEST
Ondo State remains in the eye of the storm with numerous reported politically motivated pockets of violent attacks across the entire State primarily targeting rival political groups. There were also reported fuel hike protest across the region with Lagos, Oyo and Ogun states having the highest numbers of protest. There were also various reported cases of mid-level crimes across the region. There kidnap of a political bigwig on his way to a political meeting where he was billed to defect to another part was also reported in Bolorunduro axis in Ondo state.
SW maintains a medium-risk status save for Akoko axis and Owo Axis of Ondo state which maintains a high-risk status.
SOUTH SOUTH
GF have reportedly continued their aggression against crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal oil bunkering in the zone with significant successes, destroying illegal refineries, storage facilities and dismantling wooden boat. There were reported incidents of Kidnap in Ughelli in Delta state and Finiapiri-Ama, Banigo Isile-Ogono community in Bonny LGA of Rivers state where the kidnappers were reported to have escaped into the creeks.
Pockets of political violence continues in Edo state, though none of the incidents have escalated to homicide, weapons in possession of the political thugs makes it easily possibily for situations to quickly degenerate to high-risk.
Men of the Nigerian police were reported to have confronted and neutralized of armed robbers in Idu, Delta State. The staff of Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company protested against poor service condition with a threat to throw Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Cross River into complete darkness.
SS maintains a risk posture across most of the states.
TREND ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
TERRORISM
With the reported incidents, RiskCheck assesses that week 37 demonstrates the continuous capacity of BHT groups to operate across Borno State undeterred by the government forces. The number of recorded terrorist attacks were limited, there was reportedly a high number of successful actions against BHTs by the GF. RiskCheck projects that the BHTs attack will continue across Borno State with more of isolated incidents in the short and medium term.
ATTACKS ON POLICE
There has been series of reported cases of attacks and collection of weapons from policemen both at the stations and at out of station duty post in the SE. Though a similar incident occurred recently in Oyo state, the repeated incidents in the SE could suggest stock piling of weapons by armed groups if the cases are in anyway connected. Repeated incident will however point in this direction.
KIDNAPPING INCIDENTS
Kaduna State had the highest number of kidnap incidents in week 37 with three of the incidents occurring on Kaduna – Abuja expressway. Other kidnapping high-risk areas of the week were Zamfara, FCT, Kaduna, Delta, Rivers, Kwara and Ondo States
RiskCheck assesses that the resurgence of kidnap in Kaduna – Abuja express roads in week 37 and preceding weeks is expected to continue in the short and medium term putting into considerations that there have not been reported continuous successful onslaught on the armed organized groups (AOG) over the years of operations on this particular highway. The military must hasten to enlighten the general public on its recent help lines currently being circulated on social media.
There was reduced incident of kidnapping in Abuja-Lokoja Axis, a situation probably caused by the GF attacks on the kidnappers’ hideouts in the area. RiskCheck assesses that there will be near, and mid-term reduced incidents in this axis and the time of relapse will depend on the sustained efforts of GF and the State government funded vigilantes of Kogi State. The other leg of the journey which is the Lokoja – Okene recorded an incident at Osara, a situation which has shown that the aggression on the kidnappers only affected the Abuja-Lokoja Axis and RiskCheck expects business as usual for the kidnapper operating on Lokoja - Okene axis.
The reported incident of community invasion for kidnap in Gwagwalada LGA is a reoccurring incident in the outskirts of Abuja, having reportedly occurred numerous times in Abaji, Kuje, Bwari and Kwali. Riskcheck assesses that the prompt response of the government forces to the Tugan Maje incident will only ensure that the aggressors are deterred from moving closer into the Abuja municipal. Riskcheck expects a short term and medium term continuation of such activities in the suburb of the FCT.
ARMED BANDITS ATTACKS
RiskCheck assesses that the activities of the ABGs of the SW region will continue in the short and medium term due to their better knowledge of the environment and forest terrain which is always the resting place after every incident. Riskcheck assesses that the high-risk areas remain Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto States.
ELECTION VIOLENCE
RiskCheck assesses that the pockets of violence in Ondo and Edo state will continue unabated until after the elections. Consequently, the police would do well to arrest or prosecute election offenders. The pre-election violence is usually directed at opposing political groups but with possible collateral damages to close proximity facilities and people. The Election violence in Ondo state has aggravated from the usual clash by thugs brandishing machetes and locally made guns to kidnap of a party bigwig, a situation which is expected to generate equal reaction from the opposing parties.
CULTISM
RiskCheck assesses that the increased violence by cultist in Kano, Abia and Ebonyi States has traversed from the attacks on other cult groups to attacks on private citizens thereby terrorizing their local environments. Their activities include mugging, phone theft, burglary and rape in some cases. With the reported lackadaisical attitude of the law enforcement agents to these cultist activities, it is expected that the various cult actions will continue in the short and medium term until the groups undertake actions capable of drawing the attention of the State or Federal governments.
HERDSMEN/FARMERS
Riskcheck assesses that the reported incidents of herdsmen/farmers violence in week 37 in Nasarawa and Benue States had the lone farmers working in their farms at the receiving ends of the attack. A situation that is making farming within this region very high risk. RiskCheck assesses that this violence will continue in the near and medium term due to the seeming failure of various peace initiatives and seeming lack of control by leadership of the various groups to control the aggressors and the continuous drive for revenge by individual groups.
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