Nigerians Report Online: Demographics Drive Democracy

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Demographics Drive Democracy

"Today we are in an era of unprecedented demographic divergence, with population trends moving simultaneously in different directions. Some countries are beginning to experience population decline, while others continue to grow rapidly," says Elizabeth Leahy Madsen, formerly the senior research associate at Population Action International (PAI). In this primer video from ECSP, Madsen explains how global demographic trends affect economic development, national security, and foreign policy.

Read the full post on New Security Beat: http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2011/06/watch-demographic-security-101-with.html

Demographics Drive Democracy

Population Stories to Watch from the Wilson Center

WASHINGTON, July 2, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As World Population Day approaches, Wilson Center consultant and demographer Elizabeth Leahy Madsen says the Arab Spring demonstrates that countries with very young age structures are prone both to higher incidence of civil conflict and undemocratic governance. "Among the five countries where revolt took root, those with the earliest success in ousting autocratic leaders also had the most mature age structures and the least youthful populations," she writes on the New Security Beat . What happens next in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria will further test the connection between youth and democracy discovered by fellow Wilson Center consulting demographer Richard Cincotta.
In South Asia, Madsen finds that as Afghanistan and Pakistan's political circumstances have become more entwined, their demographic paths are more closely parallel than expected. "For Afghanistan, given its myriad socioeconomic, political, cultural, and geographic challenges, this is good news. But for Pakistan, where efforts to meet family planning needs have fallen short of capacity, it is not," she writes in the first issue of the newly relaunched ECSP Report, "Afghanistan, Against the Odds: A Demographic Surprise."
Other top population issues to watch:

New commitments to family planning: An international summit in London on July 11, co-hosted by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK's Department for International Development and supported by USAID and UNFPA, may produce financial commitments toward meeting a new and ambitious goal of generating $4 billion to fund contraceptives for 120 million women in developing countries by 2020.
Changing fertility rates in Africa : Contraceptive use over the past five years is growing much faster than the regional average in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Rwanda, leading to declining fertility rates. However, contraceptive use in other countries, including Mozambique, Senegal, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, are declining or showing only modest increases.
Revised global population projections : The 2013 revision of the World Population Prospects will provide a new global population prediction for 2050. This figure can vary dramatically: If the global fertility rate changes by 0.5 children per woman in either direction, the total population could be more than one billion higher or lower in 2050.